South Africa’s Gas Cliff: Zululand Energy Terminal and LNG Deadline Tracker

Current status at a glance

The table distinguishes a completed public milestone from a target or reported position. “Not publicly verified” means Civic Ledger did not locate a current primary record confirming completion; it is not proof that no work has occurred.

What is South Africa’s gas cliff?

The “gas cliff” describes the expected decline in gas supplied from Mozambique’s Pande and Temane fields through the ROMPCO pipeline. Parliament’s electricity committee described the expected decline by 2028 as a risk to South Africa’s energy supply and industrial base. The term does not mean South Africa has already run out of gas or that every household is about to lose supply.

Industrial users are the immediate focus of the warnings. Recent industry and university commentary has referred to more than 300 industrial buyers in Gauteng and Mpumalanga. That number is attributed to the webinar coverage and should not be read as a published, audited register of affected customers.

What is the Zululand Energy Terminal?

ZET is the proposed LNG import terminal at the Port of Richards Bay. LNG—liquefied natural gas—is natural gas cooled into liquid form for transport by ship. At an import terminal it is stored and converted back into gas, which can then enter connected pipelines.

The project’s proponents are Vopak Terminal Durban and Transnet Pipelines. TNPA’s official announcement says the operator agreement covers the design, development, financing, construction, operation and maintenance of the terminal for a 25-year concession period. Transnet describes the Lilly Pipeline as carrying methane-rich gas and lists Richards Bay and Empangeni among delivery points. That establishes a potential infrastructure connection, not proof that LNG can already flow through it.

Gas-to-power procurement: the bankability link

The Department of Electricity and Energy’s Gas IPP Procurement Programme Bid Window 1 seeks 2,000 MW of new gas-fired generation capacity. The official programme page describes a long-term power-purchase arrangement and identifies Eskom as the intended buyer. The bid deadline was extended to 29 May 2026 and remained unchanged in the department’s 15 April notice.

There is a source-control issue worth noting: the IPP-Gas programme overview still displays its original 30 August 2024 bid-submission date. A later Department of Electricity and Energy notice dated 15 April 2026 says the bid-registration deadline was extended and confirms that the bid-submission date of 29 May 2026 remained unchanged. For the current deadline, the later dated notice supersedes the old overview timetable.

The Department’s programme page reviewed for this tracker listed procurement notices through 17 April 2026. In coverage of the 22 September webinar, preferred bidders were still awaited and four bids offering about 2,800 MW were reported. The bid count and capacity are attributed to that reporting, not presented as a figure in the official programme notice.

The September webinar coverage reported that four bids offered approximately 2,800 MW and that preferred bidders were still awaited. It also reported that ZET regarded the preferred-bidder announcement as an initial trigger for its engineering work. This is an important reported dependency: power procurement may help establish demand and support financing, but it is not itself a terminal construction contract, LNG supply agreement or guarantee of gas availability.

Why the 2030 timetable is exposed

The latest reported sequence is tight: a front-end engineering decision planned for November 2026; environmental assessment and engineering, procurement and construction planning thereafter; a final investment decision in early or mid-2028; and roughly two years of Phase 1 construction. The stated goal is commercial operation in 2030.

This leaves little visible contingency for a project involving marine works, LNG storage and regasification equipment, environmental authorisations, financing, LNG procurement, pipeline connections and customer commitments. The project timetable may still be achievable; Civic Ledger’s finding is that the public sequence does not show meaningful schedule slack. Each milestone must be verified as it occurs.

Accountability and evidence to watch

Civic Ledger will update this record when an official notice, signed agreement, regulatory record or attributable project statement changes the position. The milestones below are the minimum evidence needed to test whether the 2030 target remains credible.

What the signed agreement does—and does not—prove

The 25-year terminal-operator agreement is a material project milestone. It gives ZET the right to develop and operate the planned terminal under the concession framework described by TNPA. It does not, by itself, prove a final investment decision, committed project finance, completed environmental approvals, signed LNG purchase contracts, a completed pipeline, or a date on which customers will receive gas.

Similarly, an announced gas-to-power procurement target and bids received do not prove that generating projects have reached financial close or that the LNG terminal has a bankable customer. Civic Ledger will mark those as separate stages.

Sources, method and update policy

Primary records are preferred for agreements, procurement scope, legal status and infrastructure facts. Statements about future dates are labelled as targets. Claims from a webinar reported by a news outlet are labelled as secondary reporting. The “high schedule risk” label is Civic Ledger’s own assessment, based on the dated sequence described above.

This tracker was first published on 25 September 2026. It is not a substitute for formal project, procurement or regulatory notices. Last verified: 25 September 2026. No official source reviewed for this page confirms that ZET has reached financial close or started construction. If an agency, project company or affected party has a newer document, send it to hello@civicledger.co.za; the source and the resulting change will be recorded.

Frequently asked questions

Is South Africa currently out of gas?

No. The “gas cliff” refers to an expected decline in existing pipeline supply, with industrial supply pressure expected from 2028. The warning is about a future supply gap, not a claim that the country has already run out.

When is the South African gas shortage expected?

The supply decline is expected to begin around 2028 as Mozambique’s Pande and Temane fields decline. Sasol’s proposed methane-rich gas bridge and LNG import infrastructure are intended to manage the transition, but their timing and delivery must be tracked separately.

What is the Zululand Energy Terminal?

It is a proposed LNG import terminal at the Port of Richards Bay, developed by a partnership between Vopak Terminal Durban and Transnet Pipelines under a 25-year terminal-operator agreement with TNPA.

When will Richards Bay’s LNG terminal open?

The latest timetable located by Civic Ledger is a 2030 Phase 1 commercial-operation target reported after a September 2026 webinar. It is a target, not a verified opening date.

Has ZET started construction or reached financial close?

Civic Ledger did not locate a current primary record confirming financial close or construction commencement by 25 September 2026. This means not publicly verified in the sources reviewed, not necessarily that no preparatory work exists.

Why does gas-to-power procurement matter to the terminal?

The gas IPP programme may create a large long-term gas customer and help make LNG infrastructure financeable. Procurement and terminal construction are separate processes; one does not automatically guarantee the other.

What is Civic Ledger’s assessment of the deadline?

High schedule risk. The reported timetable places the investment decision in early or mid-2028 and Phase 1 construction at roughly two years, against a 2030 operating target. That leaves little or no visible contingency.